Illinois Mortgage Rates Weekly Update
4th July 2008
Welcome to Illinois Mortgage Rates and News week in review for the week ending July 4th, my take on the week’s financial news and how it affected Illinois mortgage rates.
First of all, happy 4th of July to everyone. Independence Day is one of my favorite holidays. This is when summer
really kicks in. I like the parades, festivals, barbeques and fireworks. And this holiday is all about freedom, something we take for granted but it is good to be reminded of what we have, and what we could lose if we don’t pay attention. That being said here is the breakdown of what happened to affect mortgage rates this week.
The key data this week was all about jobs. The ADP national employment report released Wednesday showed a loss of 79,000 jobs, many of them in the service sector which had been the one area that had been holding up the best. The jobs report yesterday showed the 6th straight monthly decline with a loss of 60,000 jobs, right in line with expectations. It also showed a revision showing another 52,000 jobs lost over the previous 2 months. New claims for unemployment insurance moved up to 404,000 this week – the highest since the Katrina disaster. All these signs taken together show that the economy is muddling along at best. We may not officially be in a recession, but for most people it feels like one.
On the other side of the equation, oil prices moved up again closing at $146 per barrel. Gas prices at the pump here in Illinois (more specifically the Chicago area) are up past $4.00 per gallon. The news reports people are now driving less. It will take some time to see if the lower demand will be enough to drive prices lower. The European Bank hiked rates by a .25% on Friday to fight inflation, but the wording in their statement indicated this is probably going to be the only hike. German manufacturing was down sharply, so many analysts expect that the economy is slowing there, as it is here, and that on its own will bring inflation rates down.
The stock market finished its worst June since 1930. The Dow Jones decline has been just over 20%, the official mark of a Bear market. Losses from banks and big financial’s have led the way and the auto makers released awful sales reports this week and their stocks suffered. Even Starbucks, seemingly invincible, announced that they will be closing 600 of their lower producing stores. With these signs of the slowing economy, the sting of inflation is now looked at more as another factor crimping people’s spending than a reason we need to raise rates now. At least that’s the thinking for this week.
The mortgage bond market was holiday shortened and thinly traded this week. That doesn’t mean that the week wasn’t volatile. Mortgage bond prices moved up and down like a yo-yo this week as they tried without success to break through a key area of resistance. The week ended on a sour note with bonds worsening (rates moving higher) even as the jobs report showed softness. It is common for markets to sell off on long weekends as traders unwind positions beforehand.
Mortgage rates are just a little worse on the premium side than they were at the end of last week, but overall unchanged. We are still trading in a narrow pattern and mortgage rates are between 2 levels of resistance.
Here is what Illinois mortgage rates look like today for an A+, full doc purchase on a 30 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee. The conventional loans are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. (Again, there are many factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, or to get pre-approved for a mortgage, give me a call or contact me and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you.) :
Conventional loans up to $417,000
30 year fixed rate 6.375% 6.589% APR
15 year fixed rate 5.875% 6.124% APR
5-1 A.R.M. 5.625% 5.788% APR
7-1 A.R.M. 5.875% 5.989% APR
For Jumbo loans over $417,000
30 year fixed rate* 6.875% 6.997% APR – Requires 20% down payment
7-1 A.R.M.* 6.125% 6.327% APR *there is a 1 year pre-payment penalty on this option.
FHA LOANS - 3% down payment
With 1 point origination fee – 60 day lock
30 year fixed rate 6.125% 7.048% APR
With no origination fee – 60 day lock
30 year fixed rate 6.375% 7.056%
FHA APR reflects 3% down payment and the effect of mortgage insurance on the loan.
These are just a few of the programs and mortgage rates available. Which option is best for you depends on your own specific goals and needs. If you have any questions or want to go over your situation in depth, let me know how I can help. Thanks and have a great Holiday weekend.
Illinois Mortgage Rates and News
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into affect today, July 1st. One of the provisions of the bill was to set up a database to keep track of all loans originated in Cook County. Borrowers who fall into certain risk categories will need to get counseling before they can close on their mortgage.
Predatory lending has been the cause of a lot of foreclosures and a lot of ruined lives. Anything that can put a stop to it is worth doing. But like so many laws this solution isn’t going to have the impact that it is hoping for. For one thing, the real estate market has slowed down and mortgage guidelines have tightened. It’s not as easy to commit fraud when people are paying attention so a lot of the quick-buck sharks and sleazy operators have moved on. The other factor is that the market is ahead of the curve on a lot of these provisions. The loan features that trigger counseling are all features of sub-prime loans, mortgages for borrowers who couldn’t fit into the normal conventional guidelines. Sub-prime loans were the first casualty in the mortgage melt down last year, and no one is making those loans anymore. There will be some sophisticated borrowers who may be forced into counseling because they chose to refinance with an interest only mortgage for the cash-flow benefits, but if first time home buyers are taking on loans with these features they need to know exactly what they are getting into. The law will mean some loans will take a little longer, and it will add an extra step to the process. But who knows, maybe it will even help some people.
the threat of inflation. Wall Street wasn’t happy with the decision. The Dow hit a low just ticks away from a 20% overall decline, the official mark of a Bear market. Not only did the Fed not raise rates, but their announcement balanced the threat of inflation with the threat of further slow downs in the general economy. This signaled that the Fed plans to stand pat, keeping rates the same until something forces their hand. The stock market dived and mortgage bonds benefited. Mortgage backed securities moved through an area of strong resistance Friday afternoon, ending the week at their best level in the last 3 weeks.
In other economic news, consumer confidence this week came in at the third lowest reading ever, and the lowest since 1980. Oil prices surged again, now up to $142 per barrel. Personal spending for last month was the best reading in the last 5 months, but if the stimulus checks are gone this is probably not a trend. New and existing homes both came in a touch better than expected, but still at low levels. Sales of homes in the Chicago area were down 29% from last year, but up from the previous month. Prices here seem to be stabilizing. The core inflation rate showed we are just over the target zone, giving the Fed some cover for their decision not to raise rates. Here in Illinois, Attorney General Lisa Madigan sued Countrywide Mortgage for abusive loan practices. I have mixed feelings on this one. I’m not a fan of Countrywide. As a company they have been arrogant and they were the leaders in some of the bad practices that got us into this whole mortgage mess. I also like Lisa Madigan. She’s done a good job as Attorney General, and I expect that she will be our next Governor. But that’s the point of this, it’s all political. Countrywide is a big target and an easy way to score political points, but unless they can show it was a corporate decision to defraud customers, I don’t see this going anywhere.
FHA is a government backed loan which is designed to help more people buy homes. FHA doesn’t loan the money themselves, they set up the guidelines and insure the lenders against loss through their mortgage insurance premiums. The goal of FHA isn’t to make a profit, like the private mortgage insurance companies, but to encourage more home ownership which makes a more stable society. This means they are willing to take on borrowers who are considered higher risk due to low down payments, lower credit scores, and those who haven’t built up traditional credit. This is still their mission, but now the riskier borrowers will end up paying a little more to make sure the program stays solvent.
best deal. I’ve heard too many horror stories over the years of buyers who were promised one rate, but when they got to closing they found the rate was higher, the costs were considerably more, or the program was different than what they were promised. If you got the bait and switch at closing (it’s illegal, but it does happen) you have two choices. One, you can walk away from the closing, possibly losing your earnest money, or two, you swallow your anger and go through with the deal. The problem is that the loan officer knows much more about how the system works than the consumer does. The mortgage application process can be intimidating, and you are signing a stack of disclosures, most of which no one reads. What your lender told you may be different from the documentation you signed. Mortgage lenders who are behaving in this manner are obviously not looking for repeat business. The companies that play these games are looking for the fast buck and don’t care about your long term value as a satisfied customer.
choose your lender, especially if they were recommended by a Realtor or real estate attorney who has lots of contact with different mortgage brokers and mortgage bankers. Ask your attorney what he knows about the company or loan officer you are dealing with. If the company is active in his market area, he will know the reputation of the company and how reputable they are.
credit were choking the system. Big banks and financial powerhouses were on the edge of failure and our whole economy was in the danger zone. The Fed moved decisively to inject credit into the financial markets and stem the panic. Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief, but the easier credit didn’t trickle down to the small business or home mortgage markets. On Main Street the stranglehold still seems pretty tight. The economy hasn’t been growing, but with the rate cuts and stimulus checks there have been some signs of activity. And now with gas and food prices spiking up, the worry has turned from the softness in the economy to the threat of inflation. Over the last few weeks mortgage rates headed higher as the financial community, in mass, called for higher rates to stop the inflationary spiral that was about to hit us. Last week it became official that the economy was on the road to recovery when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan announced that the credit crunch was over, or would be soon. This week a new message is coming through – not so fast, we might not be out of the woods yet.
bring to closing. A lot of information is listed on the Good Faith, but when comparing loan offers the numbers you need to compare are the companies bank fees. Title charges, escrows and pre-paid interest can be changed around to show a lower bottom line, but the bank fees are the items that they can control. 
Much of the inflation is due to the high demand for commodities in developing countries overseas. India and China have been booming and they are growing a huge middle class. This brings a desire to increase their standard of living, which means more cars on the road and an improved diet, so food and fuel prices go up. This trend will be with us for a while, but there are signs pointing to a slowdown in Asia, and if there is this will reduce inflation by itself. The other thing that makes me think this will come down on its own is the trading activity. I have a friend who is a trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where he trades contracts for cattle futures. Futures contracts are traditionally used as a hedging device. So if McDonalds wants to lock in the price of their hamburgers 9 months from now, they buy contracts on the exchange and they know what their costs will be going forward. This exchange has traditionally been used by farmers and food producers to take some of the ups and downs out of the market and measure their risk. So who are the big buyers of cattle futures today? They’re not food producers; they are financial companies, some of the same big players who created the bubble in the mortgage market. They are buying futures in all the commodities from grains to oil. The reasoning is sound. Prices are going up, so they need to buy the futures and take advantage of the rising prices. Only their buying divorces the price from any fundamentals of supply and demand. Food and fuel prices are in a bubble now, and at some point this bubble will pop and prices will go down. The question is when, and it could get much worse before it gets better.
mortgage, most of the loans will be sold off to a small group of end investors. The majority of conventional loans end up in the portfolio of one of two organizations, FNMA or FHLMC, often called Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. These organizations are government sponsored corporations that are charged with buying up mortgages in the aftermarket, packaging them into investments that are sold on Wall Street, and making sure there is always money available to lend for mortgages.
based on how long they are guaranteed for – the shorter the time period, the lower the rate.